Another notable difference is that the 2022 Falcons are relying a lot more on explosive runs than previous years’ teams. The 2022 team’s 15 explosive runs nearly match the 2016 total of 16, but represent a far larger piece of this season’s 45 total explosive plays compared to 2016’s 98-play total. Despite the running game’s continued success, the Falcons have struggled to convert their explosive plays into points since the midpoint. Essentially, the Falcons’ luck turned for the worse ever since kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 50-yard field goal in the fourth quarter of their Week 9 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. That miss came only a few plays after Mariota escaped pressure and hit running back Tyler Allgeier on a 24-yard pass.
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Fast, explosive start can lift Falcons over RavensThe Atlanta Falcons are looking to break their three-game losing streak in a tough road matchup against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. The key to Atlanta’s success could rest on their ability to dial up an explosive play early in the game to go on the offensive. That would be a welcome change from last week’s performance, when the Falcons quickly fell into a 14-0 hole to the rival New Orleans Saints just seven minutes into that game, which eventually ended in a 21-18 loss. I have long been a proponent of the need for explosiveness in modern NFL offenses, measured by their ability to generate chunk plays of 20 or more yards.
The 2018 Falcons struggled the most to reach the red zone after explosive plays, doing so on just 45 percent of their drives. It was the 2020 Falcons that had the lowest touchdown-scoring rate, crossing the goal line on 41 percent of their explosive drives. Some of the current team’s struggles can’t be helped. For example, their only explosive play against the Chicago Bears came on the final drive where Allgeier ripped off a 26-yard run to seal the game. The Falcons didn’t score any points on that drive because they immediately went into victory formation during the final minute. Then, the following week against Washington saw the Falcons generate two explosive plays to wideout Olamide Zaccheaus that also resulted in no points.
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Recent Falcons explosiveness matches all-time lows Over the last six games, the Falcons are averaging just 2. 9 points per big-play drive. They’ve reached the red zone 43 percent of the time, scored on 50 percent of drives, and found the end zone on 36 percent of those drives. This slump would fail to reach the lows of the worst figures put up in the previous 12 seasons. As mentioned earlier, 2015 saw the lowest points per drive, which also translated into an all-time low of 65 percent scoring rate on big-play drives.
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Such big plays helped them claw their way back into both games, but obviously, it would be advantageous to avoid such deficits altogether. That would require the defense to play better early on, which was not the case last week against the Saints. However, the Falcons’ offense starting fast would contribute a lot since they are 4-2 this season in games in which they’ve been tied or held a lead at the end of the first quarter. Four of those games: Seattle, Cleveland, San Francisco and L. A. included an Atlanta explosive play on their opening drive. Early lead vs. Ravens will be a challenge, but doable Last week’s Saints loss saw the Falcons attempt a shot play on their opening drive. However, rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder missed his deep ball to Patterson on his first pass. Consequently, dialing up a similar explosive play this week against the Ravens could prove difficult.
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They reached the red zone only 22 percent of the time, scored on 26 percent of those drives, and reached the end zone on just 12 percent. The 2022 Falcons have been pretty much par for the course in comparison to the previous years’ averages. This year’s team is averaging 4. 1 points on 38 big-play drives.
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The first time came when they failed to follow up a 23-yard pass to Zaccheaus thanks to being stymied on a fourth-down run to Cordarrelle Patterson in the second quarter. Then after Zaccheaus’ 45-yard catch late in the fourth quarter, their failure came at the goal line thanks to Da’Ron Payne tipping the ball into the waiting arms of Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller to seal their opponents’ win.
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Simply put, the Falcons need to get their early-season, explosive groove back. Thankfully, things have looked up the past two weeks where the Falcons’ four explosive-play drives have all resulted in scores for a total of 20 points. Yet, three of those four scores came when the Falcons were already down two scores.
When the Falcons started the season 4-4 to take a lead in the NFC South, their numbers on explosive drives were comparable with their historical 2016 offense. Run game’s early explosiveness led to 2022’s promising start This year’s team through the first eight games averaged 4. 8 points per drive, reached the red zone on 63 percent of big-play drives, scored 88 percent of the time and registered touchdowns 54 percent of the time. The 2016 Falcons reached the red zone on 63 percent of their big-play drives, scored 86 percent of the time, and found the end zone on 64 percent of drives. Regression could be expected given that few would confuse Matt Ryan’s MVP performance in 2016 with what we saw on a weekly basis from quarterback Marcus Mariota through the first half of 2022.
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Fast, explosive start can lift Falcons over Ravens